Timely Talk on North Korea, Nuclear Weapons
When it comes to dealing with North Korea, observes William Tobey, one of the United States’ leading experts on nuclear proliferation, “There are no good choices, only unacceptable outcomes and unpalatable ones.”
In the Schoolhouse’s Sackett Forum on Monday evening, December 9, Mr. Tobey spoke to the Groton School community about the challenges that the United States faces from North Korea. During the question-and-answer session that followed his presentation, Mr. Tobey expanded the topic to discuss the nuclear deal with Iran, as well as tension between India and Pakistan, which, he says, are even more likely than North Korea or Iran to engage in nuclear war.
Currently a senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, as well as director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism, Mr. Tobey has traveled extensively over the past three decades in East Asia, including South Korea, and was responsible for defense policy, arms control, and nonproliferation issues while serving on the National Security Council during the Reagan and both Bush administrations.
In his Groton talk, Mr. Tobey explained why some nations, such as North Korea, seek nuclear weapons and why this poses a threat to their neighbors and to the United States. He gave the community a short primer on “nukes,” their delivery systems, and related technologies, such as anti-ballistic missile systems. He also described how his experience as a member of the United States delegation to the Six Party Talks, which during the previous decade attempted to dissuade North Korea from acquiring nuclear weapons, convinced him that China is the key player in this drama; he pointed out that, despite more and tougher United Nations’ sanctions, China’s trade with North Korea has actually increased over the past several years. Mr. Tobey emphasized the complexity of the entire issue of North Korea and warned against hasty, impulsive responses by the United States.
When pressed by students to offer a possible solution, Mr. Tobey suggested that the experience of the Cold War offers the best model for the U.S. He said that just as the U.S. defeated the USSR through a protracted but patient policy of containment, so too should the United States contain and deter North Korea. Mr. Tobey explained that, as unpalatable it may be to allow North Korea to acquire a larger stockpile of nuclear weapons and the means to fire them at the United States, the alternative—a war that would very likely prove catastrophic to the Korean Peninsula—is unacceptable and thus must be avoided. This explains, he noted, why U.S. policy toward North Korea has remained relatively unchanged for thirty years. However, he qualified his position by adding that conditions could likely emerge that require a re-examination of U.S. policy on the issue.
While Mr. Tobey’s talk was sobering, students appreciated the opportunity to learn so much about a complicated and important issue.—Tommy Lamont P’09, ’12, ’15, History Teacher
Photograph by Tommy Lamont
Photograph by Tommy Lamont
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